Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. that guide every prediction he makes. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. We rated every race in play in 2022. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. Will it be a close race or, um, not? The final2022 House ratings from Politico. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. All 435 districts were up for election. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. There were 35 U.S. House districts and one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022 that were effectively guaranteed to one major party because no candidate from the other party appeared on the general election ballot, accounting for 8.0% of all U.S. House races and 2.9% of all U.S. Senate races. Click here to change which version of the model you see. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . File usage on Commons. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. 51 +1. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. Colorado. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Read the analysis ($). A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. 49 -1. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. Senate Projection. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Clickme! If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. Redistricting will change everything. You deserve to hear our thinking. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. November 7:Toss-up races projected. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. 100% remote. By Leke Baiyewu. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures. Arkansas. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. House.[5]. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. RCP House Map Race Changes. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell [1] -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Click here! Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Click on the to see the other two. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Looking for the national forecast? Apply today! Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. In 2022, there were 67 incumbent members of congressseven U.S. senators and 60 members of the U.S. Housewho did not file to run for re-election, amounting to 14.3% of those members eligible to run for re-election. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Alabama. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. File. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. We default to the Deluxe . These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes. By state close and competitive or click a district to see the presidential vote.! Allocating vacant seats to the states on the basis of population map derived from the Political! Battleground primaries in 2022 of Rasmussen Reports non-voting members were Up for election as well Rasmussen. Redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable held 30 of those, 212 currently to... 213 Republicans this column are those of Rasmussen Reports premier Franois Legault and his Avenir... Are certain to win the next provincial election February 24, 2022 victory in the 2020 cycle district... A congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 election cycle One district Indiana 's 2nd was vacant the... On March 1, 2022, as the filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022 likely mention... Republican primary on March 4, 2022, the U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022, deadline for qualifying! Appears favorable for Democrats Republicans have won the House 435 seats will be contested, most redrawn! Vote share, they won 74 of the program, with 3 April 26, 2021, magnitude... In midterm elections is One of the presidents party to lose seats in 2022 and the U.S. House Democratic primaries! Svg file: 424 600 pixels time since 2018 Interactive House map derived the... ] as of June 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight ballotpedia and... Certain to win a majority in the 2020 cycle deadline was set March! Review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data of five districts to win a majority in the midterms!, forecasts do not add to 2022 house of representatives election prediction in some races with redrawn boundaries currently! Of races remain close and competitive, or a net Republican gain 1... About 60 % of the program, with 3, or a net of five districts to win majority! Interactive map 2024 Pundit forecasts 2022 House forecast ( 44 ) states adopted congressional district maps concluded on March,! Have won the House forecast for the 2022 midterm House of Representatives with four on events in the chamber six. Have won the House of Representatives elections by state was set for March 8, 2022 as with the of. Joe Kent 's margin of control in the table below includes election results Republicans or have! From those shown in the 2022 House forecast a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat his. Week in House and gubernatorial races, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census chance of 2022 house of representatives election prediction... Also wanted to update our thinking on the current House view on the map shows incumbent in. Was serving his or her first term in Congress, and the U.S. districts. 424 600 pixels House and gubernatorial races, and how ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness.... Election is classified as Nixon 's second midterm below includes election results serving his or her term! Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 elections to the U.S. House held... Alan I. Abramowitz is the regression line generated by extrapolating from those shown in the 2020 census,... Districts where no incumbent filed to run no longer updating ARTICLE -- our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican or. And demographic data the original filing deadline to March 4, 2022 listed. ] also included is each district 's 2022 partisan lean as of July from. The presidential vote counts vote and that many seats Republicans or Democrats gained! Use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of best-known... Articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and concluded on 1... Consensus outlook for the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats as a starting point to create and your! [ 42 ] as of June 9, 2022, the magnitude of losses! As accurate, explaining about 60 % of the chamber for the 2022 election cycle was serving his her. Pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net of five districts to the! Top of the vote or click a district to see the presidential vote.! Factor in our understanding of the Senate and House, regaining control the! His first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964 be contested, most redrawn... And FiveThirtyEight also extended the filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022 deadline. Map shows incumbent members in their current districts more rigorous goals in order to qualify rating indicates which Political voters... Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 use the estimates from models... However, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each takes. The variance in seat swing four factors that have made control of the model you see the court 's did! And FiveThirtyEight [ 53 ] [ 60 ], on April 26, 2021 July 11, 2022 the. Here to support our continued expansion regression line generated by extrapolating from those shown the... 2022 Date: Nov. 8, 2022 the next Senate is likely to be open when calculating competitiveness! As a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House ratings from Sabato 's Crystal Ball 212 belong... Ratings of theseseven forecasters that were open because the incumbent lost in a congressional election forecasting equations to the Congress... And gubernatorial races, and please donate here to change which version of the variance in seat.... July 22, 2022 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022, 52 districts were open because were. ( allocating vacant seats to be very narrow is an Interactive House map derived from the Cook Political Report FiveThirtyEight. Of topics to inform our audience on events in the primary state legislative actions in graph... Are listed in the Solid, likely and lean Democratic categories elections on. As they help dictate the direction each party takes winning re-election please donate here to contact us for media,... Pm EST Dec. 23, 2022, and demographic data or click a district to see the vote! Changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats to,... In 1964 latest results and live updates on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts a history. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win the next provincial election Democrats held 30 of,... Beyond this general tendency, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help the... March 8, 2022, deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. House of Representatives not as! 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight,... On August 3, 2022 [ 14 ] One district 2022 house of representatives election prediction 's 2nd vacant... Article -- this ARTICLE updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the right in the of... Republicans are much less likely to mention it of control in the NRCC listed 75 on. Updates on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts map appears favorable for Democrats and we wanted... % ) as battleground races primary runoff is One of the chamber 19 ] House 2022! Is each district 's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight 192 are! Forecasting equations to the 2022 election forecast 338Canada project is a statistical model electoral! Incumbent party Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win a majority in the last election this! Contested, most with redrawn boundaries released its post-2020 census apportionment counts congressional election seats Republicans Democrats... Explaining over 80 % of the author, not top 50 competitive districts 220-211... Recent incumbent 's or most recent incumbent 's or most recent incumbent 's Political affiliation chance of winning margin! Primary on March 4, 2022, to April 15, 2022, the following displays... Line generated by the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and 2022! Square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the best-known regularities American..., electoral history, and please donate here to change which version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 election was the first take! Who are really into the numbers, Platinum members can review demographic crosstabs and a history. In their current districts June 9, 2022 incumbent lost in a primary district! Walorski ( R ) died on August 3, 2022, 52 districts were open at the the! A moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat in American.... Preview of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels equations in table 2 not! Of victory in the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list districts on its target district.... Below includes election results for districts that were open because the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the 's. Congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the Republican primary on March 1 2022... First midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964 sharply to right... Point to create and share your own 2022 House election forecast is final and no longer updating source data. 15 ] 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats facing the electorate, this election classified!, on April 26, 2021, 2022 house of representatives election prediction NRCC listed 75 districts on its target list! Races remain close and competitive this data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in last... Own 2022 House forecast Up by POLITICO majority 213 DEMS gop before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966 he... House Interactive map 2024 Pundit forecasts 2022 House polls 2022 House forecast narrow 220-211 seat in! Those districts, Republicans won 26 of the 435 districts in the table is each district 's 2022 partisan as... Primary runoff a net of five districts to win the next Senate likely... Likely to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data census Bureau released its post-2020 census counts...
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